ÀüÀÚ°øÇÐȸ ³í¹®Áö (Journal of The Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers)
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ÇѱÛÁ¦¸ñ(Korean Title) |
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Investigation of Prediction of House Price Change in Seoul based on Demographics With Back Propagation Algorithm |
ÀúÀÚ(Author) |
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Young Suh Song
Hyunwoo Kim
One-Sun Cho
|
¿ø¹®¼ö·Ïó(Citation) |
VOL 57 NO. 10 PP. 0027 ~ 0033 (2020. 10) |
Çѱ۳»¿ë (Korean Abstract) |
º» ³í¹®¿¡¼´Â ´ëÇѹα¹ÀÇ ¿¬µµº° Ãâ»ý¾Æ ¼ö µ¥ÀÌÅÍ¿Í ¸Ó½Å·¯´× ¾Ë°í¸®ÁòÀ» Ȱ¿ëÇÏ¿© ¼¿ï ÁÖÅð¡°Ý º¯È¸¦ ¿¹ÃøÇÏ¿´´Ù. ´õ Á¤È®ÇÑ ¿¹ÃøÀ» À§ÇÏ¿© ¸Ó½Å·¯´× ¾Ë°í¸®Áò Áß¿¡¼ ¿ªÀüÆÄ (Back propagation) ¾Ë°í¸®ÁòÀ» »ç¿ëÇÏ¿´À¸¸ç, °¡»ó GDP ¼ºÀå·ü°ú ¿¹»ó ¼ö¸í ¿¬Àå·üÀÌ °í·ÁµÇ¾ú´Ù. ¿¹Ãø °á°ú, ¼¿ï ÁÖÅð¡°ÝÀº 2025³â±îÁö ²ÙÁØÈ÷ Áõ°¡Çϸç, 2025³âºÎÅÍ 2033³â±îÁö´Â Å« »ó½Â¾øÀÌ À¯Áö°¡ µÇ´Ù°¡ 2033³â ÀÌÈĺÎÅÍ´Â ´Ù½Ã Ç϶ôÇÒ °ÍÀ¸·Î ¿¹ÃøµÇ¾ú´Ù. °á±¹, 2040³â°æ¿¡´Â 2020³â ÇöÀçÀÇ ÁÖÅð¡°Ý°ú ºñ½ÁÇÑ ¼öÁØÀ¸·Î µ¹¾Æ¿Ã °ÍÀÌ Àü¸ÁµÇ¾ú´Âµ¥, ÀÌ´Â ÀúÃâ»ê ¿µÇâÀ¸·Î ¾ÕÀ¸·Î ¸¸ 25¼¼ ÀÌ»óÀÇ Àα¸¼ö°¡ Á¡Â÷ °¨¼ÒÇÏ¿© ÁÖÅÃÀÇ ¼ö¿ä ¶ÇÇÑ °¨¼ÒÇÒ °ÍÀ̱⠶§¹®À¸·Î ÇØ¼®µÇ¾ú´Ù. |
¿µ¹®³»¿ë (English Abstract) |
In this paper, housing price in Seoul of Republic of Korea was predicted by utilizing annual birthrate data in Republic of Korea and machine learning algorithm. In order to conduct more accurate prediction, a back propagation algorithm was used among machine learning algorithms, and virtual GDP growth rate and expected life extension rate were considered. As a result, house price in Seoul is expected to increase steadily until 2025, and remain almost unchanged from 2025 to 2033, and then fall again after 2033. Eventually, it was expected that the house price of Seoul will return to a level similar to current house price of Seoul. This result was due to decrease in the number of people over the age of 25 from low fertility phenomenon, which results in decrease in demand for house. |
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